Some Thoughts About Our Local Forecast For Saturday....

Edit From The 9:35AM Update:

The discussion continues to keep the low pretty far offshore which will diminish the effect of this storm.  Still talk of pretty good winds in the Admiralty Inlet area....

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"So, in a nutshell, strong low just offshore, strong front, decent burst of high wind likely 

on the coast--some pretty good wind all around Admiralty Inlet, but then everything just sort

of fizzles out with just normal breezy blustery weather Saturday night and Sunday.

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There are some interesting points in this morning’s NWS Discussion.  I have taken a few snippets from the discussion and made some comments.  

The models are now showing the majority of the wind staying a little further offshore.  

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“With the low tracking this far offshore the chances for high winds over most of

the interior are significantly diminished.“

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Sounds like we dodged a bullet.....But…..  Wait....  There's more.....  This is where our local forecast might have a little "nuance".....

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“With the strong south southwesterly flow aloft on Saturday there is the possibility of a meso surface low forming in the lee of the Olympics in the northeast portion of the Olympic peninsula Saturday afternoon.”

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This is also known as a “lee-side low”.  In simplest terms, this is caused by heavy winds coming over the Olympics causing a “vacuum” on the lee side.  This essentially lowers the barometric pressure further in a fairly small area.  The result of this would be higher winds in a fairly small area on the lee side of the Olympics....  Including Hansville.

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“If this feature develops expect the strongest winds over the interior to be in an area from about Everett to Whidbey Island.”

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This could be in our “wheelhouse”…..  We experience lee-side lows often.  This storm will be nothing like the winds that sank the Hood Canal bridge, but for reference, that was a lee-side low.  

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“Expect the strongest winds on the Coast during the day and over the interior ( 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph except possibly higher in the Everett to Whidbey Island area ) in the afternoon and evening hours.”

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So….  We are not out of the woods yet.  Localized forecasts can be very difficult to call….  My gut....  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40+ mph gust on Saturday....  Enough to get our attention, but nothing catastrophic....