An Impressive Volcanic Steam Plume from Mt. Baker This Morning

I have lived here for over 42 and this is by far the most impressive I have seen.  Folks up in Bellingham see these events frequently, but this is rare for us....

Possible Aurora Tonight?

A LOT of hype about tonight’s potential for Northern Lights.  The forecast looked VERY promising.  Unfortunately, the results are pretty underwhelming.  Around noon today it should have been around KP6 (visible from here at night)…..  Unfortunately, it was quiet to KP1….  This event may have slipped by earth…..  Then again it may just be late….  Auroras are very fickle and hard to predict.  Cloud cover is always a concern, but it cleared out nicely this afternoon… 

The other concern is the bright moon that can wash out the view….  I have also attached are a couple of snips from Spaceweather….  Not an optimistic outlook.  

I will be running my good night cam tonight that updates every 60 seconds.  It starts updating 60 minutes after sunset and stops 60 minutes before sunrise.  

Direct link is here:  https://www.skunkbayweather.com/SkunkBayWebcam.html

A VERY Welcome First Sunrise of Spring 2019....

This is what we have been waiting for.....  They say a picture is worth a thousand words....  I agree!  Thought I'd share....

A Different View Of This Winter.... Winter Minutes and Wind Minutes....

To say the least, this has been a memorable winter.  We have experienced an abundance of remarkable weather anomalies.  For example, we have been hearing a LOT from the media about this February being the third coldest in Seattle recorded history.  This blog is not going to recite what we have all heard on the news.  I want to look at these last few months in a different way.  (Full Disclosure....  I got the idea from Scott Sistek KOMO)

I am only going to dissect the interesting stuff... wind and low temperatures....  This is where the largest anomalies are.  We tend to look at weather history using minimum, maximum and averages.  What if we looked at wind and temperature in minutes?  Time vs. a static number....

 

My analysis depends on some arbitrary parameters.  Let’s start by defining a “Winter Minute”.  Since I have poetic license on this blog, I am going to define a "Winter Minute" as any time the temperature as 35 or below.  I am also going to define a "Wind Minute" as any time the wind is 30mph or more.  If we add up the "Winter Minutes" or "Wind Minutes" we have a nice summary metric for how long it has been really nasty cold or windy....  

I have two temperature sensors on my site because of the marine influence.  One is on the water side and the other is behind an out building further back on the property protected from on-shore winds.  The protected temperature is more representative of temps further inland.  They can be quite different.

December was underwhelming from a statistical standpoint, so I am just going to look at January and February "Winter Minutes".  I have data by the minute back to 2013.

First, let’s look at January…

January was really quite nice.  Not record breaking but we were starting to wonder what happened to winter....  Then February happened....  "OUCH"....  Remember, these temperatures do NOT include wind chill.... 

Almost double the "Winter Minutes" of any of the previous 7 years.  Another way of looking at this is you had about a 35% chance of being greeted by a nasty "Winter Minute" every time you stepped out the front door.....  (Without wind)  And this data is from the water side sensor that is always warmer in the winter.  Here is the same data from the "Protected Side"....

The protected side bumped your odds to 40% of being greeted with a winter minute when stepping outside.....  "With No Wind"....

Just for reference, if you stepped outside during a maximum "Winter Minute" and a minimum "Wind Minute" at the same time....  (35 degrees and a 30mph wind) the "Feels Like" temperature is 21.7 degrees..... 

I have been talking about this being the windiest year I can remember.  Not record setting wind storms, but consistent very strong winds....  We have been getting slammed in Skunk Bay.....  So let's look at "Wind Minutes"....  A "Wind Minute" is (30mph or above)...

December is impressive....

January was brutal....

And February joined the party wearing a lampshade with sparklers......

I rest my case that this has been the WINDIEST winter I can remember....  

I just heard it said that "February was a LONG year".... I agree....

This analysis used summaries down to the minute.  For a broader view, I have a link on my page where you can see historical information that can be summarized by the day since 2006:

Skunk Bay Weather History - Click Here

I am SO ready for a warm spring and nice summer!