Update 5:00pm: The NWS just posted this simple, nice informative graphic.
As if we haven't had enough already, it appears we have a 2fer coming our way. A significant snow event Friday through Saturday. Followed by an encore event Monday through Tuesday. The models are coming together on this so it's a good time to prepare now. In Skunk Bay we missed the big snow but made up for that with wind and cold.... Our highest gust on the 4th was 49mph, but for a majority of the day we were gusting over 40. Our wind chill was dabbling down to single digits.... Here is a time lapse that pretty much tells the story. Watch full screen and to the end when the mountains come out....
So how much snow and wind are we going to get? Cliff Mass just put out an excellent blog about what is coming....
Recently my cams have picked up a few nice meteors.They were bright enough to be classified as a
“fireball”.A fireball is simply a very
bright meteor.There is a relative scale
used to approximate the brightness of a fireball.A magnitude -4 would be as bright as
Venus.A magnitude -12 would be as
bright as the moon.The sun would be
magnitude -26.
Meteors are entering the earth’s atmosphere all the time.Seeing one is a real treat because the odds
are against us.Obviously, most happen
when we are asleep. Thankfully my cams run all night unattended. So, I guess you could say that I do some of my best work when I'm asleep...😄 Also, given the
vastness of the sky we have to be looking in the right direction at exactly the
right time.Most last fractions of a
second.My cameras get lucky every now
and then and capture one.If you think about
it, the odds are really pretty slim.My
cameras cover a small percentage of the sky and the shutter is not open all the
time.I think of a good fireball capture
as a “trophy”. We have been on a good
run.Below is a slide show of the best fireballs my cams have captured between Oct. 3rd and Jan. 25th. It has been a good viewing season..... Best watched full screen.
I started watching carefully for meteors a few years
ago.In the process, I found an
organization that is very interested in reports of fireballs. https://www.amsmeteors.org/They
consolidate the data and if there are enough reports, they can triangulate the reports to find the track and location of these meteors.These
reports are very interesting and fun to watch.
Here is a picture of a nice fireball that my cam captured on January 25th. The American Meteor Society is using this image for the Feb. 2 through Feb. 8 "Meteor Activity Outlook" on their home page right now. Once again, click on the image for full screen.
Here is an image from the AMS site showing what they were able to create from the
multiple reports. This meteor was
actually WNW of Kamloops, BC. That is
218 miles away….. Wow…. BTW, I’m the little blue guy at the bottom on the
left…. 😉
Here is a link to the current report of this fireball:
How important is it to report a fireball if you see it? One of my cams just picked up this fireball on January 29th.
This is a pretty serious fireball and unfortunately there are only 3 reports of it. Below is the event report from AMS.
In order to determine track and location AMS needs at least 3 good reports. In this situation, you can see the three reports are virtually in line with each other. They cancel each other out. To triangulate, at least 2 more widely spread reports are needed. I got a personal report from a Facebook follower saying he saw it while driving near Lynnwood. I requested that he report it. Even after that, more reports would be needed. This was a big fireball and I am sure a lot of folks saw it, but did not know how to report it.
So, you can see the importance of sharing any fireballs you observe with AMS. It is very simple to do by going to https://www.amsmeteors.org/and click on
“Report a Fireball”. Simple walk through instructions follow. All reports are welcome
and appreciated. After you report it, you can follow your report along with others to see where it was observed and hopefully the track and location.
Over the years I have gotten to know (through email) a very
interesting person with the American Meteor Society. Robert Lunsford fulfills the following roles
in the meteor community:
Fireball Report Manager for the American Meteor
Society
Secretary-General of the International Meteor
Organization
Meteors Section Coordinator of the Association
of Lunar & Planetary Observers
He is a brilliant and passionate astronomer. More importantly, he has written a book that has a lot of
details about the how to view meteors and the science behind them. If you want to learn more,
this book is highly acclaimed by the meteor community.
For the record, I have no affiliation with his book sales. So, the next fireball you see, please take the time to report it to the
American Meteor Society…… And then have fun watching the other reports roll in.
We are entering the season when we experience the highest
tides of the year.The term “King Tide”
is nothing more than a slang term for extremely high tides.In our area, all waterfront properties need
to pay attention to these tides.There
is a LOT more to it than just what you see on the Tide Chart.In this blog I want to share some science,
some anecdotal stories and a worst case scenario backed with historical data.
The Science:
Tide levels are affected by multiple factors.All tide charts are calculated using a “static”
barometric pressure of 29.91” or 1013mb.This is the average barometric pressure.As the barometric pressure rises, this additional pressure actually
pushes the water down.The opposite is
true as well.As the pressure drops, the
water levels rise.In a simple, static
situation this is fairly simple to calculate.I have this tide impact value in real time on my site.For every millibar change in pressure, the
sea level will change by 1 centimeter.In the case below, the barometric pressure is 1019mb.That is 6mb above the average 1013.Because the pressure is higher than average
it is pushing the water down.This
results in the level being 6 centimeters or approximately 2 inches below the
forecast level.
This highlighted value above is hyperlinked to the chart below that shows
tide impact at multiple barometric pressures.
So this covers the "easy" calculations for tide level.Barometric pressure is just one of the
elements that can affect predicted tides.
The other factors are:
Storm Surge – This is caused by the wind pushing
the water onto the shoreline.It can be a
VERY significant effect during storms. This is what we
hear about all the time with hurricanes.The same physics apply to our wind storms, just at lesser level.
Heavy Rainfall and run off can increase sea
level close to shore.Rainfall alone can
cause shoreline flooding.
Shoreline Contours and restricted bays can also affect
sea levels.
Enough science….Now
for a story….
A Little History and a Story
In the early 80’s we had a storm I will never forget.I was Fire Chief at the time and I saw an
incredible amount of destruction.This
was pre-internet and forecasts were still done on TV with a chalkboard.I didn’t even have a weather station.I woke up in the middle of the night and the
wind was howling.It also sounded a
little different too.The power was out as
well.At 5:00am I got a frantic phone
call from one of our volunteer fire fighters.He said that his house, garage and car were under water.Everybody in his area was experiencing flooding.I jumped in my car and took off right away toward his
place.When I got close to the Nature
Conservancy on Twin Spits road, it was flooded….With
salt water..... Rawson Swamp was overflowing onto the road.I looked at it carefully and took a chance to traverse this area that had floor board level water.I was informed that shortly after I went
through it was impassable.When I got to
the firefighters home it was exactly as he described.Houses, garages and cars flooded….I really couldn’t believe what I was
seeing.There was nothing we could do
but wait for the wind and tide to subside.I ended up spending that time with an elderly woman that lived
alone.The waves were crashing directly
into her home. The whole house shook violently with every wave that struck it. When the tides subsided
we saw that her 12” concrete bulkhead had been totally destroyed.
This is just one of many stories of destruction from that
day.Many homes were flooded and roads
were impassable.Cars were
destroyed.There were stories of folks
finding their chest freezer at the other end of their garage after the
flood.I could go on and on about this
horrific experience. Yes….Peaceful Hansville can have catastrophic
storms.
So…What happened
with this storm?We were watching our
analog barometer drop like a rock the night before, so I knew something was
coming.As I said, it sounded different….That is because this incredible wind was out
of the East or ESE.This is a rare direction
for us.I would estimate the wind gusts
at 50+ mph.This all happened at the exact
same time of a king tide.Low barometer,
high winds and high tides are a formula for disaster.Are we prepared?
Worst Case Scenario:
I would like to share some video and then create a case
study for a worst case scenario.First,
let’s look at the video.This was taken
on January 18, 2017.We had a very high
tide and low barometer and I drove around Hansville to see what areas were
impacted.
Now I have some data to lay over
this video.It was taken after high tide and the water had already receded about 12".The forecast high tide was 11.45
feet at 8:35am that day.At high tide, the wind gusts were 16 mph.The barometer was 29.26” or 991mb.This would impact the tide by +9”.The net result would be a high tide of 12.2
feet.Since the video is after the high,
it is probably around 11.2 or so.Of the
3 elements that can really cause flooding, it was a “so-so” event.The forecast tide was high, but not real
high.The barometer was low, but not
real low.The wind was essentially not a
factor.I’ll share one more observation
from that day.The Driftwood Key launch
ramp was completely under water.In
fact, half of the parking lot was submerged too.
So, let’s put together the perfect
trifecta for disaster.Think of the
video you just watched and we’ll adjust a few factors.First, let’s start with changing the forecast high tide to 13.5 feet.Yes, it’s
possible....The lowest barometric
pressure I have recorded on my site is 28.65” or 970mb. Let's use that number.... The high winds my site recorded over that
period were 46mph.I had a shorter anemometer
mast back then, so realistically the winds would have been 50+ mph.Fortunately the high tides that day were "only" about 9.75 feet.
So, let’s run the numbers. Barometric
pressure of 28.65” results in an additional 17” to the high tide.If the predicted high is 13.5 feet, the
actual theoretical high tide would be 14.9 feet.For good measure, let’s add some 50mph wind. This could easily add another foot or two.
In the video, sea level was about 11.2 feet.This worst case scenario would result
in a 14.9 ft. tide….plus another 2 foot storm surge.Watch the video again and visualize sea level
about 5 feet or more above what you see….With
50mph winds.
Are We Prepared?
This is an extreme depiction of
what "could" happen.More than likely we
will never see this, but something in between is definitely not out of the question.Are we prepared?It’s not just waterfront properties.Roads would be blocked in this scenario due
to flooding.Do you know where the
flooding will be and do you have an alternate route?Floods
happen fast. I put together a chart showing all remaining high tides above 11 feet this year.
The clear skies are giving us some great views.... First, my good night cam picked up a nice meteor this morning. Last night was prime for the Leonid meteor shower, although this fireball is probably random. The Leonids are typically smaller. Click on the image for a better view. Edit: I just consulted with Robert Lunsford of the American Meteor Society. He is certain that this is a Taurid fireball. The Taurid meteor shower is active right now too.
Now that the sun is up, Mt. Baker is out in all her glory....
Anybody else notice
how windy this November has been here. I just went back and looked at the
number of days we have had wind gusts 40 mph and above. So far this year in 14
days we have had 4.... For numbers geeks that is 29% of the days so far....
Here is a summary from my system going back to 2006... 2014 was windy, but we
are still on track to beat that number this year...
The winds REALLY picked up this morning. As I type we are having consistent gusts over 40 mph. Highest so far is 43. At the same time, our air quality is deteriorating. This strong southerly flow is actually carrying smoke from California into Oregon and Washington. Right now the air quality in the Cascade foothills is "Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups". What a paradox.... Last summer we wanted the wind to get rid of the smoke and now the wind is bringing the smoke to us. This really speaks to how bad it is in California. Thoughts and prayers to them....
