Forecast In My Own Words....

Forecast in my own words... Paraphrased from the latest NWS Discussion…. #wawx

Looks like Mother Nature will be serving appetizers for this storm party starting tomorrow morning…. Just light fare and nothing too substantial…. The main course will be served later tomorrow afternoon. It will start out light and then build overnight through much of Saturday. This of course could be overridden by a Puget Sound convergence zone which we may be invited to participate in. Even heavier snowfall with this possibility. Snowfall totals will be much more than we have experienced the last few years.

Then for dessert, we will be having winds….Then, there will be another party starting Sunday evening. I think our Mother Nature social calendars will be full for the next several days….

So, I will be heading out to Costco here in a bit, along with the other 270,000 Kitsap County residents to stock up….

Be safe out there…. We haven’t seen one… or should I say two like this in quite a while….I will be thinking of the poor NWS forecasters that may be standing in this position for quite a while...

Major Snow and Wind Event(s) Coming Our Way.....

Update 5:00pm: The NWS just posted this simple, nice informative graphic.

As if we haven't had enough already, it appears we have a 2fer coming our way.  A significant snow event Friday through Saturday.  Followed by an encore event Monday through Tuesday.  The models are coming together on this so it's a good time to prepare now.  

In Skunk Bay we missed the big snow but made up for that with wind and cold....  Our highest gust on the 4th was 49mph, but for a majority of the day we were gusting over 40. Our wind chill was dabbling down to single digits.... Here is a time lapse that pretty much tells the story.  Watch full screen and to the end when the mountains come out....

So how much snow and wind are we going to get?  Cliff Mass just put out an excellent blog about what is coming....

Click Here For Cliff's Blog

Meteors …. A Request For Reports, Why It Is Important and How To Do It…..

Recently my cams have picked up a few nice meteors.  They were bright enough to be classified as a “fireball”.  A fireball is simply a very bright meteor.  There is a relative scale used to approximate the brightness of a fireball.  A magnitude -4 would be as bright as Venus.  A magnitude -12 would be as bright as the moon.  The sun would be magnitude -26.

Meteors are entering the earth’s atmosphere all the time.  Seeing one is a real treat because the odds are against us.  Obviously, most happen when we are asleep.  Thankfully my cams run all night unattended.  So, I guess you could say that I do some of my best work when I'm asleep...😄  Also, given the vastness of the sky we have to be looking in the right direction at exactly the right time.  Most last fractions of a second.  My cameras get lucky every now and then and capture one.  If you think about it, the odds are really pretty slim.  My cameras cover a small percentage of the sky and the shutter is not open all the time.  I think of a good fireball capture as a “trophy”.   

We have been on a good run.  Below is a slide show of the best fireballs my cams have captured between Oct. 3^rd and Jan. 25^th.  It has been a good viewing season.....  Best watched full screen.

I started watching carefully for meteors a few years ago.  In the process, I found an organization that is very interested in reports of fireballs.  https://www.amsmeteors.org/   They consolidate the data and if there are enough reports, they can triangulate the reports to find the track and location of these meteors.  These reports are very interesting and fun to watch.

Here is a picture of a nice fireball that my cam captured on January 25th.  The American Meteor Society is using this image for the Feb. 2 through Feb. 8 "Meteor Activity Outlook"  on their home page right now.  Once again, click on the image for full screen.

Here is an image from the AMS site showing what they were able to create from the multiple reports.  This meteor was actually WNW of Kamloops, BC.  That is 218 miles away…..  Wow….  BTW, I’m the little blue guy at the bottom on the left…. 😉

Here is a link to the current report of this fireball: 

AMS Detailed Report Report Of This Fireball

How important is it to report a fireball if you see it?  One of my cams just picked up this fireball on January 29th.  

This is a pretty serious fireball and unfortunately there are only 3 reports of it.  Below is the event report from AMS. 

In order to determine track and location AMS needs at least 3 good reports.  In this situation, you can see the three reports are virtually in line with each other.  They cancel each other out.  To triangulate, at least 2 more widely spread reports are needed.  I got a personal report from a Facebook follower saying he saw it while driving near Lynnwood.  I requested that he report it.  Even after that, more reports would be needed.  This was a big fireball and I am sure a lot of folks saw it, but did not know how to report it.

So, you can see the importance of sharing any fireballs you observe with AMS.  It is very simple to do by going to https://www.amsmeteors.org/ and click on “Report a Fireball”.  Simple walk through instructions follow.  All reports are welcome and appreciated.  After you report it, you can follow your report along with others to see where it was observed and hopefully the track and location.

Over the years I have gotten to know (through email) a very interesting person with the American Meteor Society.  Robert Lunsford fulfills the following roles in the meteor community:

•        Fireball Report Manager for the American Meteor Society
•        Secretary-General of the International Meteor Organization
•        Meteors Section Coordinator of the Association of Lunar & Planetary Observers

He is a brilliant and passionate astronomer.  More importantly, he has written a book that has a lot of details about the how to view meteors and the science behind them.  If you want to learn more, this book is highly acclaimed by the meteor community.  

It is available here:  

Direct Link To Meteors and How to Observe Them 

It is also available on Kindle at Amazon:  

Amazon Link

For the record, I have no affiliation with his book sales.  

So, the next fireball you see, please take the time to report it to the American Meteor Society……  And then have fun watching the other reports roll in.

‘Tis The Season For King Tides…. What Could Possibly Happen?....

We are entering the season when we experience the highest tides of the year.  The term “King Tide” is nothing more than a slang term for extremely high tides.  In our area, all waterfront properties need to pay attention to these tides.  There is a LOT more to it than just what you see on the Tide Chart.  In this blog I want to share some science, some anecdotal stories and a worst case scenario backed with historical data.

The Science:

Tide levels are affected by multiple factors.  All tide charts are calculated using a “static” barometric pressure of 29.91” or 1013mb.  This is the average barometric pressure.  As the barometric pressure rises, this additional pressure actually pushes the water down.  The opposite is true as well.  As the pressure drops, the water levels rise.  In a simple, static situation this is fairly simple to calculate.  I have this tide impact value in real time on my site.  For every millibar change in pressure, the sea level will change by 1 centimeter.  In the case below, the barometric pressure is 1019mb.  That is 6mb above the average 1013.  Because the pressure is higher than average it is pushing the water down.  This results in the level being 6 centimeters or approximately 2 inches below the forecast level.

This highlighted value above is hyperlinked to the chart below that shows tide impact at multiple barometric pressures.

So this covers the "easy" calculations for tide level.  Barometric pressure is just one of the elements that can affect predicted tides. 

The other factors are:

Storm Surge – This is caused by the wind pushing the water onto the shoreline.  It can be a VERY significant effect during storms.  This is what we hear about all the time with hurricanes.  The same physics apply to our wind storms, just at lesser level.

Heavy Rainfall and run off can increase sea level close to shore.  Rainfall alone can cause shoreline flooding.

Shoreline Contours and restricted bays can also affect sea levels.

Enough science….  Now for a story….

A Little History and a Story

In the early 80’s we had a storm I will never forget.  I was Fire Chief at the time and I saw an incredible amount of destruction.  This was pre-internet and forecasts were still done on TV with a chalkboard.  I didn’t even have a weather station.  I woke up in the middle of the night and the wind was howling.  It also sounded a little different too.  The power was out as well.  At 5:00am I got a frantic phone call from one of our volunteer fire fighters.  He said that his house, garage and car were under water.  Everybody in his area was experiencing flooding.  I jumped in my car and took off right away toward his place.  When I got close to the Nature Conservancy on Twin Spits road, it was flooded….  With salt water.....  Rawson Swamp was overflowing onto the road.  I looked at it carefully and took a chance to traverse this area that had floor board level water.  I was informed that shortly after I went through it was impassable.  When I got to the firefighters home it was exactly as he described.  Houses, garages and cars flooded….  I really couldn’t believe what I was seeing.  There was nothing we could do but wait for the wind and tide to subside.  I ended up spending that time with an elderly woman that lived alone.  The waves were crashing directly into her home.  The whole house shook violently with every wave that struck it.  When the tides subsided we saw that her 12” concrete bulkhead had been totally destroyed.

This is just one of many stories of destruction from that day.  Many homes were flooded and roads were impassable.  Cars were destroyed.  There were stories of folks finding their chest freezer at the other end of their garage after the flood.  I could go on and on about this horrific experience.  Yes….  Peaceful Hansville can have catastrophic storms.

So…  What happened with this storm?  We were watching our analog barometer drop like a rock the night before, so I knew something was coming.  As I said, it sounded different….  That is because this incredible wind was out of the East or ESE.  This is a rare direction for us.  I would estimate the wind gusts at 50+ mph.  This all happened at the exact same time of a king tide.  Low barometer, high winds and high tides are a formula for disaster.  Are we prepared?

Worst Case Scenario:

I would like to share some video and then create a case study for a worst case scenario.  First, let’s look at the video.  This was taken on January 18, 2017.  We had a very high tide and low barometer and I drove around Hansville to see what areas were impacted.

Now I have some data to lay over this video.  It was taken after high tide and the water had already receded about 12".  The forecast high tide was 11.45 feet at 8:35am that day.  At high tide, the wind gusts were 16 mph.  The barometer was 29.26” or 991mb.  This would impact the tide by +9”.  The net result would be a high tide of 12.2 feet.  Since the video is after the high, it is probably around 11.2 or so.  Of the 3 elements that can really cause flooding, it was a “so-so” event.  The forecast tide was high, but not real high.  The barometer was low, but not real low.  The wind was essentially not a factor.  I’ll share one more observation from that day.  The Driftwood Key launch ramp was completely under water.  In fact, half of the parking lot was submerged too.

So, let’s put together the perfect trifecta for disaster.  Think of the video you just watched and we’ll adjust a few factors.  First, let’s start with changing the forecast high tide to 13.5 feet.  Yes, it’s possible....  The lowest barometric pressure I have recorded on my site is 28.65” or 970mb.  Let's use that number....  The high winds my site recorded over that period were 46mph.  I had a shorter anemometer mast back then, so realistically the winds would have been 50+ mph.  Fortunately the high tides that day were "only" about 9.75 feet.

So, let’s run the numbers. Barometric pressure of 28.65” results in an additional 17” to the high tide.  If the predicted high is 13.5 feet, the actual theoretical high tide would be 14.9 feet.  For good measure, let’s add some 50mph wind.  This could easily add another foot or two.

In the video, sea level was about 11.2 feet.  This worst case scenario would result in a 14.9 ft. tide….   plus another 2 foot storm surge.  Watch the video again and visualize sea level about 5 feet or more above what you see….  With 50mph winds.

Are We Prepared?

This is an extreme depiction of what "could" happen.  More than likely we will never see this, but something in between is definitely not out of the question.  Are we prepared?  It’s not just waterfront properties.  Roads would be blocked in this scenario due to flooding.  Do you know where the flooding will be and do you have an alternate route?  Floods happen fast.  

I put together a chart showing all remaining high tides above 11 feet this year.

A Meteor and The Mountain....

The clear skies are giving us some great views....

First, my good night cam picked up a nice meteor this morning.  Last night was prime for the Leonid meteor shower, although this fireball is probably random.  The Leonids are typically smaller.  Click on the image for a better view.

Edit: I just consulted with Robert Lunsford of the American Meteor Society.  He is certain that this is a Taurid fireball.  The Taurid meteor shower is active right now too.

Now that the sun is up, Mt. Baker is out in all her glory....