An Impressive Volcanic Steam Plume from Mt. Baker This Morning

I have lived here for over 42 and this is by far the most impressive I have seen.  Folks up in Bellingham see these events frequently, but this is rare for us....

Possible Aurora Tonight?

A LOT of hype about tonight’s potential for Northern Lights.  The forecast looked VERY promising.  Unfortunately, the results are pretty underwhelming.  Around noon today it should have been around KP6 (visible from here at night)…..  Unfortunately, it was quiet to KP1….  This event may have slipped by earth…..  Then again it may just be late….  Auroras are very fickle and hard to predict.  Cloud cover is always a concern, but it cleared out nicely this afternoon… 

The other concern is the bright moon that can wash out the view….  I have also attached are a couple of snips from Spaceweather….  Not an optimistic outlook.  

I will be running my good night cam tonight that updates every 60 seconds.  It starts updating 60 minutes after sunset and stops 60 minutes before sunrise.  

Direct link is here:  https://www.skunkbayweather.com/SkunkBayWebcam.html

A VERY Welcome First Sunrise of Spring 2019....

This is what we have been waiting for.....  They say a picture is worth a thousand words....  I agree!  Thought I'd share....

A Different View Of This Winter.... Winter Minutes and Wind Minutes....

To say the least, this has been a memorable winter.  We have experienced an abundance of remarkable weather anomalies.  For example, we have been hearing a LOT from the media about this February being the third coldest in Seattle recorded history.  This blog is not going to recite what we have all heard on the news.  I want to look at these last few months in a different way.  (Full Disclosure....  I got the idea from Scott Sistek KOMO)

I am only going to dissect the interesting stuff... wind and low temperatures....  This is where the largest anomalies are.  We tend to look at weather history using minimum, maximum and averages.  What if we looked at wind and temperature in minutes?  Time vs. a static number....

 

My analysis depends on some arbitrary parameters.  Let’s start by defining a “Winter Minute”.  Since I have poetic license on this blog, I am going to define a "Winter Minute" as any time the temperature as 35 or below.  I am also going to define a "Wind Minute" as any time the wind is 30mph or more.  If we add up the "Winter Minutes" or "Wind Minutes" we have a nice summary metric for how long it has been really nasty cold or windy....  

I have two temperature sensors on my site because of the marine influence.  One is on the water side and the other is behind an out building further back on the property protected from on-shore winds.  The protected temperature is more representative of temps further inland.  They can be quite different.

December was underwhelming from a statistical standpoint, so I am just going to look at January and February "Winter Minutes".  I have data by the minute back to 2013.

First, let’s look at January…

January was really quite nice.  Not record breaking but we were starting to wonder what happened to winter....  Then February happened....  "OUCH"....  Remember, these temperatures do NOT include wind chill.... 

Almost double the "Winter Minutes" of any of the previous 7 years.  Another way of looking at this is you had about a 35% chance of being greeted by a nasty "Winter Minute" every time you stepped out the front door.....  (Without wind)  And this data is from the water side sensor that is always warmer in the winter.  Here is the same data from the "Protected Side"....

The protected side bumped your odds to 40% of being greeted with a winter minute when stepping outside.....  "With No Wind"....

Just for reference, if you stepped outside during a maximum "Winter Minute" and a minimum "Wind Minute" at the same time....  (35 degrees and a 30mph wind) the "Feels Like" temperature is 21.7 degrees..... 

I have been talking about this being the windiest year I can remember.  Not record setting wind storms, but consistent very strong winds....  We have been getting slammed in Skunk Bay.....  So let's look at "Wind Minutes"....  A "Wind Minute" is (30mph or above)...

December is impressive....

January was brutal....

And February joined the party wearing a lampshade with sparklers......

I rest my case that this has been the WINDIEST winter I can remember....  

I just heard it said that "February was a LONG year".... I agree....

This analysis used summaries down to the minute.  For a broader view, I have a link on my page where you can see historical information that can be summarized by the day since 2006:

Skunk Bay Weather History - Click Here

I am SO ready for a warm spring and nice summer!

The Great Gamble Bay Freeze Over....

This has been a historic weather week.  Obviously one of the most used phrases over the past 10 days has been “I have never seen anything like this”.  This qualifies as a story about something I have never seen before.  I thought I would take some time to write about one of the most remarkable memories I will have of this parade of storms…. 

The “Gamble Bay Freeze Over”

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I have lived on Puget Sound all of my life.  I have lived in Hansville for over 40 years.  I have never seen any part of Puget Sound freeze over and I really didn’t think it was possible.  So, when some friends of ours shared photos of Gamble Bay with ice on it I was astonished.  How could this be?  What made this possible?  Has this ever happened before?  I did a little research.

 

First, seawater will freeze at 28.4 degrees vs. 32 degrees for fresh water.  The average temperature in Puget Sound is 52 degrees.  So, if the water is 52 degrees and it has to be 28.4 degrees to freeze, how could this possibly happen?

Here is a map of Gamble Bay. 

Notice that it is a long narrow bay with a very narrow inlet.  This would dramatically reduce the amount of “mixing” with the 52 degree water in Hood Canal.  

The other thing to notice is there are at least 4 fresh water streams flowing into the bay.  When fresh water meets salt water it does not mix right away.  Fresh water is not as dense as salt water so it will “float” to the top.  In this situation, it will also hug the shoreline.

 

Now, let’s introduce a bunch of frozen fresh water thanks to a heavy burst of wet snow.  This chills that surface layer of fresh water even further.  Suddenly Gamble Bay becomes an ice maker….  

This is an amazing sight and I am very thankful to Hayley Pistay and Greg Gabrio for sharing these incredible images with me.  Definitely something I will remember from all this historic weather....  

A couple more images were shared with me of frozen over salt water

Alderbrook Webcam

Between Shelton and Olympia

Some Good Posts With Current Storm Info

There is so much going on right now with the weather and so much uncertainty, I thought I'd share some current links to good posts.  As new interesting posts come in I will insert them at the top.
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WOW... This just happening. Gamble Bay (salt water) is freezing over. 5:00pm - 2/11/19

Photo Credit: Hayley Siegenthaler Pistay.

Aerial View Over North Kitsap at 11:00 2/11/19

No garbage pickup again today....

Cliff Mass "Slushmaggedon"

Comment: Poulsbo Cental Market this afternoon:

Comment:  I just changed the schedule of my live streaming cam to run overnight. It's fun to watch the snow falling at night.  SBW Live Cam Link - 6:15pm

Comment: Snow is sticking to the roads now in North Kitsap.  A good time to STAY home. 5:30pm 

Abby Acone - 5:25pm

Morgan Palmer - 2/10/19 - 5:00pm

NWS - 2/10/19 - 5:00pm

Cliff Mass - 2/10/19

Scott Sistek - 2/10/19

NWS Regarding Sunday-Monday

NWS Regarding Monday-Tuesday

Forecast In My Own Words....

Forecast in my own words... Paraphrased from the latest NWS Discussion…. #wawx

Looks like Mother Nature will be serving appetizers for this storm party starting tomorrow morning…. Just light fare and nothing too substantial…. The main course will be served later tomorrow afternoon. It will start out light and then build overnight through much of Saturday. This of course could be overridden by a Puget Sound convergence zone which we may be invited to participate in. Even heavier snowfall with this possibility. Snowfall totals will be much more than we have experienced the last few years.

Then for dessert, we will be having winds….Then, there will be another party starting Sunday evening. I think our Mother Nature social calendars will be full for the next several days….

So, I will be heading out to Costco here in a bit, along with the other 270,000 Kitsap County residents to stock up….

Be safe out there…. We haven’t seen one… or should I say two like this in quite a while….I will be thinking of the poor NWS forecasters that may be standing in this position for quite a while...