Friday, June 9, 2017

Long Range Winter Forecasts Are In.... Mild El Nino or La Nada?

Cliff Mass shared his thoughts about the latest long range forecasts for this winter in his blog today.  He also shares the latest long range forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and other forecast models.  It is a very interesting read. 

The forecasts are suggesting a weak El Nino or Neutral (La Nada) conditions.  He does an excellent job of explaining the distinctions, how they are forecast and what we can expect. 

I’ll throw in one caveat….  We have had some of our strongest storms during “La Nada” winters.  The 1962 Columbus Day storm and the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm happened during a neutral year.

None of this information can create an absolutely accurate forecast.  Natural variability plays a huge role in our actual weather.  In his blog he states:

“But keep in mind, the El Nino/La Nina connection only explains about a third of the year to year variability in our weather.”  

Here is Cliff’s Blog:

I'll share a little photography here as well.  On June 6th we had a pretty remarkable sunrise that included a Sun Pillar and some Crepuscular Rays.

On June 8th we had some pretty blustery weather.  This picture says it all....

The image above is included in this time lapse:


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